Pollster predicts Dem turnout to drop, GOP turnout to increase in election
A poll released today that shows Gov. Martin O’Malley leading over Republican challenger and former Gov. Robert Ehrlich also predicts that turnout among Democrats and independents will drop in the general election while Republican voters will increase.
The poll by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies shows O’Malley leading Ehrlich 47 percent to 42 percent. About 4 percent said they planned on voting for a third party candidate and 6 percent said they were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
The poll of 816 registered voters who said they were likely to vote was conducted from Oct. 11-16.
The poll concludes that voter turnout will be key.
Last month, Democratic voter turnout was down 27 percent compared to the 2006 primary. Republican turnout was up 23 percent compared to the same year.
Based on the data, the poll predicts that less than 1.1 million Democrats will come out on Nov. 2 — a 7 percent decrease compared to 2006.
More than 644,000 Republicans, an increase of 11 percent over 2006, are expected to turnout for the election.
The poll also predicts that 232,000 independents will vote this year — a decrease of 2 percent compared to 2006.